Powertrain to 2030: Trends and Risks

Attention has recently been focused on self-driving vehicles and full electrification as major disruptors for the auto sector in the next decade.

But for the next several years the industry is likely to be dominated by radical changes occurring WITHIN the internal combustion (IC)-engined automotive model, as new engine management and optimization technologies and partial electrification address changes demanded by regulators and markets, such as achieving carbon emission reductions and fuel economy gains despite the sidelining of diesels.

Now updated for February 2019 with a fresh look at EV vehicle categories, architecture and commercial use,  “Powertrain to 2030: Trends  and Risks” examines the impact of these developments on the five major elements of the future powertrain:

• IC engines
• Transmissions
• Control Systems
• Batteries
• Electric Motors

The report looks at technical trends and developments in each of these areas, and projects how those they might develop through to 2025 and 2030.

The report takes a unique approach to assessing the central track of the industry’s technological roadmap – and then discusses the threats and challenges to that projection as way of analyzing the risks and opportunities that will dominate the next decade.

In other words it establishes the consensus view, and then challenges it by identifying key uncertainties and potential disruptors.

Each chapter summarizes current developments for each of the technology areas, and then pulls them together into plausible, alternate scenarios to the central outlook to help planners “bookend” the best and worst cases.

The report builds on a series of in-depth studies of different powertrain technologies, as well as Autelligence surveys of experts.

Table of contents

Chapter 1. Introduction

1.1 Overview of Market Drivers
1.2 Scenarios and Developments – The Consensus View
1.3 The Shape of Technical Disruptors and Innovations
1.4 Key Questions, Uncertainties, and Trends

Chapter 2. Regulatory requirements worldwide drive development

2.1 Criteria and GHG emissions
2.2 Fuel economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Regulations
2.3 Test Cycles – The Day of Reckoning
2.4 Fuel availability and affordability
2.5 Forcing the Issue – Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandates
2.5.1 California ZEV program
2.5.2 China NEV program
Chapter 2 Summary

Chapter 3. Current State of the Market for xEVs

Chapter 4. Internal Combustion Engine Developments for Light Duty Vehicles

4.1 Gasoline ICE Engines
4.2 GDI Better Fuel Economy, More Soot
4.3 Technology Map – a Quilt, not a Blanket
4.4 Gasoline Potential Disruptors and Innovations
4.5 Diesel Engine Developments for Light Duty Vehicles
4.6 Diesel Technology – Strengths and Weaknesses
4.7 Growth Constrained by High Diesel Fuel Prices and Demand
4.8 Diesel Forecasts and Trends
Chapter 4 Summary – Forecasts and Uncertainties

Chapter 5. Electric battery storage

5.1 Background and Batteries – Development Progresses
5.2 Economics and Price – is $100/kWh valid?
5.3 Battery Progress and Projections
5.4 Battery Suppliers
5.5 Potential Disruptors and Innovations in Energy Batteries
5.6 Prices and Projections
5.7 Charging a Battery
Chapter 5 Summary – Forecasts and Uncertainties for electric battery storage

Chapter 6. Business Models and User Acceptance of Electric Vehicles

6.1 Consumer Attitudes Count
6.2 Consumer Acceptance Models
6.3 Mobility as a Service
6.4 Personal BEVs, Fun tempered by Range
6.5 Synthetic fuels
Chapter 6 Summary – Forecasts and Uncertainties

Chapter 7. Trends and Projections – A Scenario Approach

7.1 Common Assumptions
7.2 Low Tech Scenario – Less technology and electrification than the Consensus View
7.3 High Tech Scenario – Accelerated development of high tech combustion and electrified technologies

Appendix A: Powertrain systems overview

A.1 Electrification of the powertrain
A.2 Technology and architectures

Appendix B: Transmissions for light duty vehicles

B.1 Types of transmissions – terms of reference
Appendix B Summary – forecasts and uncertainties

Appendix C: Electric drive system developments for light duty vehicles

C.1 Electric motors
C.2 Power electronics
C.3 Integrated units
C.4 48V hybrid developments
Appendix C Summary – forecasts and uncertainties for electric traction drive systems

Appendix D: February 2019 Quarterly Research Update

Commercial Vehicles Take the Lead 90
Automakers Exploit the Strengths of Battery Electric Vehicles? 91
Market Trends – China Dominates 93

Company profiles

BorgWarner
Bosch
Continental
Delphi
Eaton
Hitachi Automotive Systems
Honeywell
Magneti Marelli
Ricardo
Schaeffler
Valeo
ZF Friedrichshafen

Table of Figures

Figure 1.1 A model of competing development drivers that is no longer the sole model

Figure 1.2 An emerging model that may be more important than the triangle model is for powertrains to balance more complex needs, especially Mobility-as-a-Service

Figure 1.3 Data presenting Continental’s 2015 Powertrain Outlook for Global private and light vehicle engine production through 2024, referred to in this report as the 2015 Consensus View

Figure 1.4 Data presenting Continental’s 2017 Powertrain Outlook for Global private and light vehicle engine production through 2030, referred to in this report as the 2017 Consensus View

Figure 1.5 The consensus view as shown by Continental’s projections have increased their predictions of vehicle electrification by 15% in 2025 in just the last two years

Figure 2.1 Summary and timing of important worldwide emissions regulations

Figure 2.2 Why Chinese regulations matter – the Chinese market is now the largest in the world and expected to stay that way

Figure 2.3 A concise summary of how criteria pollutants are challenging the worldwide automotive industry

Figure 2.4 While regulations are getting tighter, there is a limit to the effectiveness of ever stricter regulations. This data shows how much cleaner the US EPA 2025 mandates are compared to 2015, and in absolute terms

Figure 2.5 US EPA CAFÉ for 2017–2025 adjust needed CO2 emissions (fuel economy) based on a vehicle’s footprint

Figure 2.6 Emissions and fuel economy regulations required a defined test procedure to ensure they are being met and to ensure all vehicles were being judged equally

Figure 2.7 An example of a test cycle conducted on a chassis dyno, this is the proposed worldwide, harmonized test cycle as of 2013

Figure 2.8 The intent is for RDE to not replace dyno tests but complement them

Figure 2.9 Portable Emissions Measurement Systems, or PEMS, will be a key element in RDE test

Figure 2.10 Crude oil prices adjust for inflation show a steep drop in 2015 . As of 2018, projections are for oil prices to hover around $60/bbl for the foreseeable future

Figure 2.11 Sales projections from CARB using a mid-range, most likely scenario for ZEV regulatory compliance in California

Figure 2.12 ZEV model diversity is growing significantly through 2021

Figure 3.1 The worldwide market for plug-ins, including BEVs and PHEVs, shows that China has grown in 4 years to be the dominant market for plug-in vehicle volumes

Figure 3.2 Sales of HEV vehicles sold in the US wax and wane, in concert with inflation adjusted fuel prices among other factors

Figure 4.1 Efficient turbocharged gasoline direct engines, GTDI, make engines more efficient over a wider range of loads and speeds, improving fuel economy

Figure 4.2 Note the vast differences in take rates for various engine technologies by region predicted by IHS Automotive by 2020

Figure 4.3 Ricardo advocates incremental costs towards achieving needed improvements in fuel economy

Figure 4.4 The Achates OPGCI engine prototype in a Ford F-150 shows the practicality of such advanced engines in practice

Figure 4.5 ExxonMobil projects that commercial transport will drive future fuel demand, driving up a demand for diesel

Figure 4.6 Steady improvements in fuel consumption per unit of horsepower is shown

Figure 5.1 This illustration shows the inner workings of a lithium-ion battery

Figure 5.2 Notional diagram of battery operation for the three recognized modes of electrified powertrains, illustrating why batteries are oversized

Figure 5.3 Specification for commercializing a suitable battery for an electric vehicle

Figure 5.4 Using basic assumptions, $100/kWh provides cost parity to a fuel-efficient passenger car in North America

Figure 5.5 Using the same cost model using prices average in Germany and $250/kWh seems a reasonable cost for battery storage to achieve price parity with gasoline passenger cars

Figure 5.6 Status of energy batteries against end-of-life goals as evaluated by USABC and USCAR in December 2015

Figure 5.7 Lithium -ion installed battery manufacturing capacity by supplier, Q! 2017 in GWh

Figure 5.8 Motivation for pursuing advanced electric batteries – the potential to rival gasoline energy density

Figure 5.9 According to Bloomberg in 2016, automotive traction battery in 2020 were estimated to be above $200/kWh on average

Figure 5.10 The latest calculations to date and future projections of battery costs for use in xEVs from Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Figure 5.11 The authors of an academic study pointed out the that future projected cost of Li-Ion batteries in 2020 decrease over time

Figure 5.12 Current cost projections show the industry closing in on USABC EV battery goals

Figure 6.1 In a survey conducted by Morpace, the conventional ICE engine remains consumers number one choice, followed closely by hybrids and GTDI as second and third

Figure 6.2 Impact of government incentives can be powerful . As an example, when Norway in 2015 enacted legislation favoring plug-ins over battery electric vehicles, the vehicle mix changed dramatically

Figure 6.3 The Rogers Innovation Diffusion curve is well accepted approach to understanding the demographics of potential users

Figure 6.4 Global sales of PHEVs and BEVs as a share of the market less than 1 .5%

Figure 6.5 A study by U .C . Davis showed that the same group of people in California were purchasers of plug-in electric vehicles

Figure 6.6 With an appropriately sized battery for a range of 150 miles, a BEV costs less to operate than a comparable ICE powered car

Figure 6.7 Data compiled by General Motors indicates that greater than 70% of potential EV buyers would be satisfied with a BEV that had a range greater than 200 miles on a single charge

Figure 7.1 Continental’s vision of a light duty market dominated by conventional powertrains by 2025 is commonly held in the industry, within certain parameters (reformatted), in millions of units worldwide

Figure 7.2 A variant chart from the Consensus view of light duty powertrains based on a scenario with drivers that favor lower technology powertrains, in millions of units worldwide

Figure 7.3 An aggressively optimistic projection of electrified and high technology light duty powertrain distributions as a variant on the Consensus Model, in millions of units worldwide

Figure A.1 Conventional powertrain systems have a single source of energy and torque, generated from an internal combustion engine transferred via the crankshaft

Figure A.2 According to BCG, improvements to powertrain – especially engines – outweighs all other potential conventional improvements automakers could make

Figure A.3 Generalised torque/speed curve . All ICEs, particularly gasoline, exhibit BSFC maps like this with worse efficiency under low, or part load

Figure A.4 MY 2014 vehicle production that meets future US CAFE CO2 emissions targets, from 2016 to the proposed 2025 targets, according to data from the US EPA

Figure A.5 An example of some of the most common architecture models for “full” HEV systems

Figure A.6 This chart from Continental is good way to view the various options of electrification, from simple start-stop to a full electric vehicle, in terms of fuel economy at the point of use

Figure A.7 Comparison of idealised torque curve for an electric motor and an ICE engine, showing how they complement each other

Figure A.8 The decision landscape between electrification and conventional improvements to meet future fuel economy and CO2 regulations

Figure B.1 Global transmission sales (millions) projected to 2020

Figure B.2 The differences in the number of speeds in an automatic planetary gear transmission means the engine will operate more frequently at its most fuel efficient load/speed point

Figure C.1 The basic electric drive traction system, here shown as part of a hybrid electric system

Figure C.2 GKN Automotive showcased its new eTwinsterR torque-vectoring electric drive system for hybrid vehicles

Figure C.3 ZF’s electric drive system positioned centrally on the axle is also available as a unit fully integrated into a new modular rear axle concept

Figure C.4 Some in the industry are using the term ‘P4 Hybrid’ to describe the electrified axle configuration

Figure C.5 Continental predicts that saving fuel increases with each level of integration . Energy management can make more comprehensive use of an ICE and electrical energy

Table of Tables

Table 2.1 Forecasts of key market driver questions summarized with probabilities assigned

Table 4.1 Forecasts of key ICE technology questions summarized with probabilities assigned

Table 5.1 Approximate recharging times per SAE for PEVs and BEVs

Table 5.2 Forecasts of key battery electric storage questions summarized with probabilities assigned

Table 6.1 Summary of Potential Disruptors

Table C.1 Essential elements of electric traction drive systems

Table C.2 Essential elements of electric traction drive systems with “stretch”