Autonomous vehicles to 2027: a detailed review

In-depth analysis of the impact of autonomous driving on the automotive industry: business models, regulation, technology, industry restructuring, forecasts for adoption

The new world will be defined by automated driving, in the future it will be an everyday feature of our life and it will completely change mobilityHerbert Diess, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen

Within a short time frame, not only the concept of autonomous cars but actual deployment of autonomous technology on the road has gone from blue sky theory almost to everyday reality. The automotive industry is faced with radical and deep-rooted change.

Based on extensive primary and secondary research and original surveys, “Autonomous vehicles to 2027” seeks to make sense of developments by breaking them down into their key parts, analysing the impact of each area, and pulling everything together to provide an assessment of the real significance of developments.

Report section overview

  1. Context: development factors, market, end user, environmental and societal developments & changes, timing and speed of technology take-up
  2. Technology: developments in hardware, software, engineering and communication technology, technology roadmap 2017 to 2030
  3. Regional trends: national and regional policy in North America, Europe, Asia and elsewhere
  4. The industry: impact of context, technology and regional trends on the automotive industry, including finance, product development, research and partnerships in relation to traditional OEMs, suppliers and new/start-up entrant businesses.
  5. Outlook: the AV industry and market out to 2027

Key issues covered

  • Business models and the new personal transport ecosystem – the auto industry as part of the new transportation system, ride-sharing, ownership models, services, incremental or disruptive
  • Regulation, risk and litigation – machine morality, liability, legislation, safety
  • The technical evolution of the autonomous car – enabling the next level of ADAS, safety, technology
  • Roadmap to autonomous driving – global development of research and innovation projects, state level initiatives
  • Enabling technology – power, communication, network design, software, sensors (clusters, modules, sensor fusion), HMI, mapping
  • Keys to success – value chain development, powertrain, chassis systems, interior, exterior
  • Potential for industry restructuring – the auto industry now, recent changes in transportation, new entrants and start-ups, OEM and supplier initiatives, integrating the old with the new
  • Forecast for adoption – driving factors, projected adoption by region, risks
  • Structure of the self-driving car industry

Why should you buy this report?

  • Get an integrated view of how autonomous driving will change automotive, mobility, insurance and technology
  • Find out how the industry’s structure is likely to change, and understand where your company fits into it
  • Assess current technology and understand the companies delivering it
  • Understand where autonomous driving is now, where it is likely to go, and how fast it is likely to move

Methodology

  • Primary research and analysis: Academic or commercially available literature, conference presentations at events throughout 2015 and 2016, original Autelligence survey of automotive executives on their view of how autonomous driving will shape the industry and their company
  • Secondary research: Extensive researching and synthesizing of company data, model launches, technology initiatives, strategic analysis of leading companies in the sector

Introduction 8

  • They’re Everywhere 8
  • Definitions of Autonomous Driving 8
  • Approaches to Autonomous Driving 10
    • Google 10
    • Nissan 10
    • Tesla 10
  • Analysing & Assessing Autonomous Driving Developments 10

Chapter 1: Context 12

  1. The future suddenly seems a lot closer 12
  2. Restructuring Surface Transport 14
  3. Population Growth and Urbanisation 14
  4. Market Issues 18
  5. Greenhouse emissions, Self-driving and Mass Transit 20
  6. Safety and Autonomous Vehicles 23
  7. The Technology 25
    • Evolution versus Revolution 25
      • The ‘Traditional’ Approach 26
      • The New Players’ Approach 28
    • Technology Development 29
    • OEM Technology Announcements 30
  8. Some Conclusions 32

Chapter 2: Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Technology 35

  1. Introduction 35
  2. AV Technology Overview 37
    • Architecture 37
    • Functional Blocks 39
      1. Perception 39
      2. Decision-Making 51
      3. Manoeuvring 62
  3. Driving & Riding in an Autonomous Vehicle 64
    • Driver Inattention/Distraction 66
    • Situational Awareness 71
    • The Human Machine Interface 72
      • Monitoring the Occupants 73
      • Augmented Reality 74
      • HMI – Information Overload? 75
  4. A Technology Roadmap: 2017 to 2030 75

Chapter 3: Regional & Country Policies on Autonomous Vehicles 77

  1. Europe 77
    • Germany 78
      1. The FMTDI Automated Driving Round Table 78
      2. The Digital Autobahn Test Zone 79
      3. The UR:BAN Project – Urban Space 79
      4. Autonomous Commercial Vehicles 81
      5. Digital Infrastructure Initiatives 82
      6. AV Policy Initiatives 83
      7. Standardisation 84
    • United Kingdom 84
      1. AV Testbed Projects 84
      2. Real-world Testing of AV Technology 85
      3. AV Research & Development Funding 85
      4. AV Policy Initiatives 86
    • France 86
      1. New Industrial France 86
      2. AV Roadmap 87
      3. AV Test Policy 87
      4. Conference of Parties on Climate Change 88
    • Netherlands 88
      1. Dutch Initiative for Smart Mobility 88
      2. European Truck Platooning Challenge 89
      3. AV Trials 89
      4. Dutch Automated Vehicle Initiative 90
    • Sweden 91
      1. Drive Me Project 91
      2. Vision Zero Initiative 93
      3. AV Test Policy 93
    • Spain 93
      1. Government Initiatives 93
      2. AV Research 94
    • Finland 95
      1. Legal Framework and Vehicle Testing 95
      2. The Aurora Test Centre 96
      3. NordicWay Agreement 97
    • Italy 97
      1. AV Regulation 97
      2. AV and Related Project Examples 98
  2. North America 100
    • United States 100
      1. Federal Initiatives 100
      2. State Initiatives 102
    • Canada 104
      1. National Initiatives 105
      2. Provincial & City Initiatives 106
  3. Asia 107
    • China 107
      1. Legislation 107
      2. Example Trials and OEM Activity 108
    • South Korea 108
      1. Government Initiatives 108
      2. Example AV Trials and R&D 109
    • Japan 110
      1. Government Initiatives 110
      2. Example AV Activity 111
  4. A Selection of AV Activity Elsewhere 112
    1. Singapore 112
    2. Taiwan 113
    3. Australia 114
  5. Tables 116

Chapter 4: Implications for Automotive Industry Structure 136

  1. Introduction 136
    • Structural Features of Automotive Industry 137
      • Other Radical Transformations for The Transportation Economy 138
      • Electric vehicles 138
  2. The Position of Automotive OEMs 138
  3. Acquisitions and Investments by OEMs 142
    • 2016 – Example Investments 142
      • General Motors 142
      • Ford 142
      • Audi 143
      • Volkswagen 143
      • BMW 144
      • Toyota 145
      • Volvo 145
    • 2015 – Example OEM Investments 145
      • New Entrant Activity 146
        • Alibaba 146
        • Apple 147
        • Baidu 148
        • Google 149
        • Yandex 150
  4. Legacy OEMs Shift to Contract Manufacturing? 150
  5. Start-ups 151
  6. Traditional First-Tier Suppliers 152
    • Key Advantages 152
      • Developing New Capabilities 152
      • Mergers and Acquisitions 153
  7. Sub-system and Non-Automotive Suppliers 154
  8. Conclusion 155
  9. Tables 157
    • AV-related OEM Investments and Partnerships 157
      • 2016 157
      • 2015 158
    • Interest from Non-Automotive Businesses 158
      • 2016 158
    • Autonomous-related Acquisitions by Tier 1 suppliers 158
      • 2016 158
      • 2015 159
    • Subsystem Manufacturer Activity 159
      • 2016 159
      • 2015 160
    • Level 4 Systems in use 161
      • 2016 161

Chapter 5: The Transition to a New Transportation Sector 162

  1. Introduction 162
  2. Diffusion of AV Technology 162
    • The Diffusion Model 163
    • Diffusion Constraints 164
  3. Will Potential AV Technology Benefits Appear? 165
    • Safety 165
    • Productivity 166
    • Vehicle Pricing 166
    • Convenience 166
    • Price Elasticity of Demand 167
  4. How Will/Could Purchase, Ownership & Maintenance Models Change? 168
    • Potential Ownership Models 168
    • Outright Ownership 168
    • Shared Ownership 169
    • On Demand 170
    • Maintenance, Regulation & Safety 170
  5. Who Will Make Money from AVs? 171
    • Traditional Competition & Branding 171
    • The Fight for Intellectual Property 172
  6. Conclusion 175

References 176

Table of figures

Figure 1.1: “Ford CEO Mark Fields says his company is ‘completely rethinking how we approach the business’. Do you think autonomous cars will be a significant driver of change for your business?” 13
Figure 1.2: When do you expect driving autonomy to become reality for vehicles on the road? 13
Figure 1.3: The relative attractiveness of vehicles in Germany 15
Figure 1.4: The relative attractiveness of vehicles in China 16
Figure 1.5: Relative Urban Mobility of World Cities 17
Figure 1.6: % Changes in Energy Consumption due to Vehicle Automation 21
Figure 1.7: Consumer demand for safety features in their next vehicle 24
Figure 1.8: The Full Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes 24
Figure 1.9: ADAS Sensors 27
Figure 1.10: Technical Challenges for AVs 29

Figure 2.1: The Chevrolet Tahoe “BOSS” used in DARPA Grand Challenge 2007 35
Figure 2.2: Miles driven by Google self-driving car (October 2016) 36
Figure 2.3: Functional Architecture of an Autonomous Vehicle 37
Figure 2.4: Functional building blocks of autonomous vehicles 38
Figure 2.5: Uber’s self-driving prototype “Ford Fusion” 40
Figure 2.6: A reconstructed image from a stereo-vision camera of Mercedes S-class prototype 42
Figure 2.7: Magna’s autonomous driving prototype (Cadillac ATS) 43
Figure 2.8: Evolution of radar technology 44
Figure 2.9: VLP-16 “Puck” LiDAR sensor 45
Figure 2.10: Comparison of different perceptive systems by Dr. Karsten Funk 46
Figure 2.11: A reconstructed image of Google driverless prototype navigation a construction zone 47
Figure 2.12: Relation between sensor fusion and programming complexity 49
Figure 2.13: Potential conflict scenarios in ACC systems 50
Figure 2.14: An example of incorrect perception by mono-vision camera 51
Figure 2.15: Vehicle Control Architecture 52
Figure 2.16: Projection of attachment rate of AI-based systems for automotive industry (2015–25) 53
Figure 2.17: Pedestrian detection system using deep learning 54
Figure 2.18: Scania’s hill descent/ascent control system using real-time GPS data (Active Prediction) 56
Figure 2.19: A reconstructed image showing probe-data being collected by the front camera 57
Figure 2.20: V2X Extends a Vehicle’s Horizon 58
Figure 2.21: MK5 on-board DSRC unit for V2X communications 59
Figure 2.22: MK5 Road Side Unit 60
Figure 2.23: A man dozing while the Tesla Autopilot system is engaged 64
Figure 2.24: Nielsen Report “What’s Driving Tomorrow’s Drivers?” 67
Figure 2.25: Brown’s Tesla Model S after colliding with 18-wheel truck 69
Figure 2.26: Bird’s eye of Tesla Model S road crash of May 7 69
Figure 2.27: Sensors on Tesla Model S for Autopilot system 70
Figure 2.28: Types of Situational Awareness – Autelligence based on Jaguar Land Rover information. 71
Figure 2.29: Synergies of car HMI and levels of vehicle automation (2014) 72
Figure 2.30: Emotion analysis using in-vehicle facial recognition 73
Figure 2.31: Augmented Reality from Hyundai 74

Figure 3.1: European Commission funded projects supporting the development of automated driving 2005–2015 78
Figure 3.2: Online traffic information in the US 81
Figure 3.3: Mobile-Edge Computing 83
Figure 3.4: French AV Roadmap 87
Figure 3.5: Dutch exemption processes 89
Figure 3.6: EcoTwin Project 90
Figure 3.7: WEpod 91
Figure 3.8: Drive Me project road sections 92
Figure 3.9: The Aurora Test site in Finnish Lapland. 96
Figure 3.10: Next Future Transportation Modules 98
Figure 3.11: Michigan autonomous vehicle facility 103
Figure 3.12: Autonomous driving consumer survey 2015 108
Figure 3.13: Japanese Government AV Roadmap 111
Figure 3.14: Australian AV Timeline 114
Figure 3.15: Volvo driverless cars trials in South Australia 115

Figure 4.1: Competitive Differentiators/Brand Equity Values under Threat 140
Figure 4.2: Waymo, Commercialising Google’s Self-driving Car 149

Table of tables

Table 1.1: 15 major cities by largest difference in vehicle ownership rate, developed countries, percent of households with passenger car, 2014 17
Table 3.1: Europe Legislation and Policy Initiatives 116
Table 3.2: Europe Trials for Self-driving cars 121
Table 3.3: North America Legislation and Policy Initiatives 123
Table 3.4: North America Trials for Self-driving cars 129
Table 3.5: Asia Legislation and Policy Initiatives 130
Table 3.6: Asia Trials for Self-driving Cars 134

 

 

Publisher: Autelligence
Published: March 2017
Pages: 197

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